Tri Valley Market

Tri-Valley Real Estate  Market Report Regarding the Cities of Pleasanton,  Dublin, Castro Valley & Livermore November 2018 Autumn markets in counties around the Bay Area have seen significant shifts, but with wide variance in the magnitude of these changes between counties. So far, the East Bay has seen less dramatic changes than other local markets such as Santa Clara and Sonoma Counties. Homes that sell have generally continued to sell relatively quickly, and median sales prices are higher on a year-over-year basis. However, listing inventory has climbed, sales volume has dropped, and the numbers of price reductions and expired listings have increased. Around the Bay Area, year-over-year home price appreciation appears to be slowing since the spring selling season. Market statistics are shifting amid a background of financial market and political volatility, and rising interest rates. Many standard statistics are lagging indicators and take time to reflect changes on the ground. They will bear watching in coming months. Trends in Median Values The next 5 charts reflect seasonally adjusted, smoothed, estimated fair market values going back to 1996. They are not based on MLS sales data and may vary - generally to some small degree - from MLS calculations. Typically, the trend lines are very similar. It's always useful to look at the market from different angles and using different measurements. Tri-Valley Median Dollar per Square Foot Trends (plus Danville & San Ramon) Appreciation trends by this metric are virtually identical in the general area. Remember that median statistics generalize a very wide range of values in the underlying individual homes. A comparison of year-over-year, median house sales price appreciation rates, 2016 - 2018, for the months of August, September and October, for 3 major East Bay markets. Supply & Demand Statistics Many of the changes in the statistics below are less substantial than those seen in other Bay Area markets, but there are distinct shifts. For the time being, the data is relatively short term. Coming months will give us further insight into where the market may be heading. In October 2018, the number of active listings in the Tri-Valley area increased 28% year-over-year from October 2017 - a fairly large jump - but the increase over  2016 was only 7%. Inventory was extremely low last autumn around the Bay Area, which skews y-o-y comparisons of this statistic. This next chart takes a longer-term view of active listing inventory in all of Alameda County. Here too, one sees a much larger year-over-year increase than when comparing inventory levels to previous years. For the Bay Area as a whole, home sales suddenly plunged 18% year-over-year in September 2018, and there was very similar drop in the Tri-Valley region. Looking at the last 3-month period, August-October, Tri-Valley home sales volume dropped about 11% from the same period of 2017.  So: An increase in active listings, but a decline in sales: That would indicate some softening in the low-supply/high-demand dynamic that has prevailed in recent years and which has helped fuel high appreciation rates.  Some nearby counties have been absolutely hammered by price reductions this autumn: A few, such as Santa Clara and Sonoma, saw staggering year-over-year increases over 350% (though 2018 to 2016 comparisons were not quite as dramatic). In Alameda County - this statistic is available by county - October 2018 saw by far the highest number of reductions in at least 6 years - a 189% jump over 2017, and an 87% increase over 2016. This is an important indicator of changing market conditions, as it signals a growing disconnect between buyer and seller expectations. After overbidding hit new highs this past spring, the Tri-Valley average sales price to original list price percentage - one measure of competition between buyers - dropped back down to a little below 100% in September and October 2018. The latest percentages are not alarming in themselves - many markets around the country would love to see such small discounts off list price - but the contrast with spring is considerable. The growing number of price reductions is likely to impact it further. Thus far, those listings selling this autumn have generally sold relatively quickly. But this statistic is a lagging indicator and won't reflect properties that have not yet sold, perhaps after necessary price reductions. If the market is in the midst of a sustained transition, future months may see significant adjustments in this metric. The number of listings expiring and withdrawn from the market without sale has been climbing: The September and October 2018 figures were much higher on a year-over-year basis. We will see if there are substantial further increases in November and December of homes that sellers have not been able to sell at the prices they currently consider acceptable. That could be another sign of the market shifting to another phase. High-End Home Sales Looking at the past 3 months, the number of homes selling for $1,500,000 and above is down a little y-o-y, but considering just September-October, the number is virtually unchanged. Interestingly, the more expensive home segment has been more resilient in sales volumes around the Bay Area so far this autumn. Izabella Lipetski DRE# 01372992 (510) 506-2072 izabella.lipetski@compass.com © Compass 2018 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC Compass is a licensed real estate broker (01991628) in the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only. Information is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdraw without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footages are approximate. Exact dimensions can be obtained by retaining the services of an architect or engineer. This is not intended to solicit property already listed

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